Basic Income Will Kill the Economy

Irony isn't often as emphatic as this.

I'm sitting in the lobby of my favorite hotel in Bucharest, Romania, waiting on my girlfriend, and I'm scanning the news of the day on my phone. I come across an article, penned by an economist from the supposedly nonpartisan (but funded by labor) Economic Policy Institute that claims higher wages are the solution to America's expanding reliance on payday lending.

A few minutes later, I come across a second article titled: "This robot-powered restaurant could put fast-food workers out of a job."

The two theses are mutually exclusive. They cannot coexist. Only one will win... and, I can promise, it's not the position held by the economist. I can also promise that you and I will ultimately feel the repercussions in our paychecks and in our wallets...

The winner is, of course, the robot-powered restaurant. It's tied to a company known as Momentum Machines.

Momentum is quasi-famous (though largely unknown still) for having invented a machine that can cook - apparently perfectly - 400 made-to-order burgers per hour... all without human hands, except maybe to fill the hoppers of meat, veggies and buns from which the burger machines draw ingredients. Of course, given the profound leaps in robotic technology and machine learning, those hopper-filling humans will fall away as hopper-filling robots arrive.

Momentum, an exceedingly reclusive company that declined my request for a meeting when I was in San Francisco earlier this year, has filed a permit to build a restaurant - a largely robot-powered burger joint - in San Fran's SoMa neighborhood.

Thus, we come to the irony of those two articles I read.

Basic Income: Dead on Arrival

In a world where machines can make perfect burgers, there's no need for burger flippers earning $15 per hour.

Already, there are kiosks taking orders and payments, obviating the need for front-of-house staff earning $15 per hour. And in parts of Asia, robotic waiters have begun popping up, albeit with some glitches. Once they come to America - and they will - gone is much of America's waitstaff.

The obvious point is that we are very near to the day when the value of human labor in the fast-food and casual-dining industries, among many others, falls to precisely zero. Pushing for higher wages, à la the Economic Policy Institute and a broad collection of politicians and labor unions, only hastens the arrival of that moment.

Unpopular as this sentiment might be, the truth is that flipping a burger, punching buttons on a computer, delivering food and taking payments from customers are not skill sets worth $31,000 a year, as the $15-per-hour movement implies. I'm not saying there is no honor in that job, and I'm not aiming to belittle fast-food workers making an honest living. I'm simply saying that technology is doing to them what mobile phones did to the pay-phone booth.

Fast-food franchises operate on thin margins, and driving up the cost of a commodity - labor - so dramatically will, definitively, turn profits to losses. Franchise owners will respond by either raising prices (not a winning strategy in a lame economy) or by replacing high-cost workers with technology that radically lowers costs, negates human-resource annoyances and greatly improves efficiency.

And that's where problems start for me and you...

Economy-Crushing Unemployment

What will America look like when millions of workers have no place to earn a paycheck?

Some people I've talked to take the position that losing these jobs will pave the way for a new class of jobs not yet even created. Maybe.

But given the expansiveness of technology's capabilities, such new jobs will be fewer in number and will require a more educated and skilled base of workers than currently exists at the service-sector level.

We're looking at an economy soon enough imperiled by mass joblessness - not just at the fast-food level, but across a broad swath of industries. Think: self-driving taxis hailed via app; self-driving commercial trucks and delivery drones; computers that can read mammograms and CAT scans better than human technicians; technology that can prepare taxes, underwrite insurance and bank loans, track and order office supplies, fetch parts and orders from a warehouse, restock store shelves. The list is extensive.

Unemployment will be epidemic, easily exceeding 20% of the workforce, if not more.

How will people live?

Some have begun talking of a "basic income," a minimum monthly income on which people can pay for their lives. I won't comment on the moral and philosophical shortcomings of such an ideology. I will only say that "someone's got to pay."

If we assume that the government targets basic income at the unemployed only, that $15 per hour is what labor thinks people need to earn to live a middle-class existence, and that unemployment is in the 20% range, then the government will need to disburse something on the order of $1 trillion every year in basic income payments. That's more than the government sends to Social Security recipients.

But basic income, as envisioned, would go to every adult. Assume the average payment is $15,000 a year, and the government is on the hook for something close to $4 trillion in annual payments - larger than the entire federal budget.

Western governments/economies already struggle under a corpulent quantity of debt. They cannot simply print the money needed to fund a basic income program without fueling uncontrolled inflation, a collapse of the dollar and a debt crisis that would prove terminal for America. The only solution would be to fundamentally restructure the tax system so that remaining workers and businesses pay sharply higher taxes.

That's the second-derivative impact of the push for higher wages that, in turn, is driving faster adoption of worker-replacing technology.

Your Protection in This Dangerous World

It's the world we're rapidly racing toward. And aside from expatriating to some place like Uruguay, pretty much only one investment will protect you from this certain future: physical gold.

Gold will rise in value as the dollar falls and as the U.S. fiscal situation worsens, because you can be sure that politicians, loathe to lose their jobs, will fashion a solution that preserves their jobs at the cost of fiscal prudence for the country.

Like I said, irony is rarely so emphatic as it is when it comes to labor's desire for higher wages and technology's mission to destroy the need for those workers in the first place.

As a lifelong world traveler, Jeff Opdyke has been investing directly in the international markets since 1995, making him one of the true pioneers of foreign trading. He is Investment Director for The Sovereign Society and a weekly contributor to The Sovereign Investor Daily.

Riders On The Storm

In today's chaotic world one can relate to the Doors rendition of "Riders On The Storm". We as a society especially after the Trump election victory that's if you can call it that, precludes that we all are riders on a storm. A storm of unimaginable upheaval in the world around. I can remember a time back in the late 60's when Vietnam tore this nation apart. The song that set the tone of that period was "Riders On The Storm". Now today the mood is almost the same when the unexpected occurred with Trump winning the Presidency.To quote the lyrics of that song is as symbolic as it was back then as it is today. "Riders on the storm, into this house we're born, into this world we're thrown, like a dog without a bone, an actor out alone." As profound as these lyrics are they have had a resiliency that depicts history repeating. The times have changed the bit players are new but the general theme of discontent that has invoked a national consciousness to rally around the wrongs against society whether it was Vietnam or the election of Trump remains the same.

We are all riders on the storm. With apprehension, worry and dismay we grudgingly await each day to a realm of reality far removed from the times of just yesterday. The sheer shock that has settled in is an irreversible reality. It has already affected the moral fiber of our whole society. Like Limburger Cheese the aroma that has now permeated from this Presidential election has spread into every pore of our nation today.

It is not too well known that the United States is the only democratic republic that has two sets of criteria in choosing the head of state. And, in America today that head of state is the President. The Electoral College that was established when our founding fathers framed the Constitution wanted to safeguard this new nation from becoming a monarchy or becoming a totalitarian state. The Electoral College originally was set up to thwart tyranny of the majority. In doing so they incorporated rules that align themselves with the requirements for treaties to be ratified. With today's Presidential outcome where the majority of the voters chose Clinton over Trump but the Electoral College over ruled the popular vote questions have now surfaced. Is the electoral college in violation of majority rule?

Since 2000 the electoral college has overturned and over ruled the popular vote which allowed the minority to succeed in selecting the President. As a result the electoral college didn't prevent tyranny of the majority but instead provided the gateway for tyranny of the minority. What this past election says is that the electoral college chose a candidate supported by just one particular social group over not only the majority of voters but also over the vast number of minority interests in the country.

We are all riders on this post election storm. It can be arguably said that the Electoral College violates political equality and popular choice. The perverse consequences of this Electoral College has now become the exact opposite of what our founding fathers initiated. It has not protected American democracy from tyranny of the majority it has only allowed tyranny of the minority. And until we understand this and correct the huge flaw in our democratic process we will continue to be riders on the storm.
By Dr. Tim G Williams

Telecoms for Business

Any business relies on technology to operate. With fast and reliable internet connections, strong mobile signals and advanced telecoms systems, it is possible to effectively communicate with customers and colleagues, suppliers and partners in a variety of ways. Any business that doesn't have access to the latest technology is put at a disadvantage.

The accelerated rate at which digital technology has grown in recent years and our reliance on it has put great pressure on the capacity of copper based networks. The wide scale deployment of fibre (often referred to as Fibre to the Premises or FTTP) networks is being seen as the only way to address this and equip homes and businesses with what they need.

A recently released 'Building Gigabit Britain Report' compiled by leading UK businesses highlights the importance of a wide spread fibre network to the long term prospects of British business and the wider economy. As the population embraces advances in digital communications, wireless devices, remote working and competition in global markets, the need for fibre is obvious.

The Report highlights a number of ways in which the Government could, and in opinion of the authors should, support the roll out of a new fibre infrastructure. These include investing in a clear strategy that commits to 80% of the population having access to fast fibre broadband by 2026, with near universal coverage by 2030.

In regards to the regulations which currently govern the industry, it is noted that whilst some regulations help to protect customers, others are more of a hindrance to progress. It suggests that some of the financial barriers are removed and that current regulations are reworked in order to encourage both competition and collaboration from telecoms companies. This is seen as vital for innovation in communications and private investment in rolling out the fibre networks.

The report also raises the importance of advertising guidelines being enforced, so that clear and transparent information is available to the public. The success of many local economies could depend on the timely roll out of fibre and how the process is communicated and managed by local councils and telecoms companies.

Fast and Reliable Broadband

So, if fast and reliable broadband and embracing digital technology is so essential to the future of the British economy, how does it impact on your business? Did broadband speed influence your decision on where locate your business? Are you reliant on the roll out of fibre in order to realise the goals in your business plan?

Has fast reliable broadband enabled you to make the most of the latest business telecoms systems? If so, your employees could be as easy to contact (by you and your customers) whether they are at their desk, out at a business event, or working remotely. You could be saving time and money by conference calling partners and clients, rather than meeting in person. You can avoid missing that important call with voice mail and printed transcripts of the message.

Many companies haven't upgraded their business telecoms in recent years, it simply hasn't seemed like the top priority, but much like your IT, there can be significant benefits from streamlining procedures, increasing productivity and integrating one system with another.

Business Telecoms Systems

Your company may have to wait several years before fast and reliable fibre systems are in place, but you can give your operations an advantage by investing in the latest business telecoms systems. If your team are finding it increasingly difficult to manage the increasing volume of calls, or seasonal peaks, then this could be a sign that an upgrade is due.

Other indicators include issues with resolving problems with the system and the prohibitive challenges associated with adding new lines or integrating the phones with other technology. Whilst many Company Directors have concerns about the cost of an upgrade, the reality is that the latest business telecoms are often far more cost effective that older systems and can lead to considerable savings in the long term.

If you would like to find out more about how improved communication systems could support your business objectives, Opus Telecoms can assist. We are a Corporate Associate of the Institute of Telecommunications Professionals (ITP) with expertise in the supply, installation and support of a range of high specification business telecoms.

We can help you to find the ideal solution for your business and provide the on-going support and maintenance which will ensure it is fit for purpose as your business evolves. For further information visit Opus Communications: http://www.opus-telecoms.co.uk/

The Shadow Rider

Out of the pages of history galloping across the western plains of the Old West rides a lone crusader bringing law and order to an otherwise lawless land. With stealth and cunning many an outlaw met his fate. Horace Mann was broad of shoulder and narrow at the hip and everywhere he went the long arm of the law was not far away. With steely blue eyes wearing his white Stetson he struck terror in those who broke the law. The Stetson, the hat that was to become synonymous with western lore became the embodiment of truth and justice which set him apart from the outlaws of the time. Atop his Appaloosa sitting tall in the saddle with his Winchester at the ready everyone knew in an instant that justice would soon be served. As fast as he was with a six shooter the deadly aim of his Winchester many an outlaw found himself entombed on Boot Hill. His fame and his legend spread through-out the West. Soon news of his exploits reached places like New York where newspapers dubbed him The Shadow Rider. The man and his Winchester found it's way into dime novels where many a young boy fantasized riding the plains of the wild west.

It wasn't soon after that one of those dime novels made their way to the desk of Grover Cleveland. Intrigued by his exploits and with consistent news of Indian uprisings and cattle rustling through-out the Dakota and Wyoming territories the President looked no further when he read of the daring do of the Shadow Rider to restore order and peace. By the summer of 1887 the Indian affairs office was alerted to a potential all out war brewing in the plains of Wyoming and the Dakotas. The Sioux and the Arapaho were joining forces with the Cheyenne. The tribes realized that their way of life was being threatened. The buffalo herds that were once so plentiful now were disappearing. Tensions were high, violence was all to commonplace, and the only law was the quick of the draw or the straight of an arrow. To tame this troubled land there was only one man, The Shadow Rider.

While the Arapaho and the Sioux were sounding war drums the existing climate of lawlessness and tolerance by lenient judges and juries sympathetic to rustlers continued to spark more violence into an already violent land. To make matters worse the onslaught of homesteaders made the cattle barons eager to do anything to stop the influx of people who have threatened their livelihoods. Wyoming during the 1880's was the epicenter for violent confrontation with the combined tribes of the Arapaho, Sioux, the Cheyenne, the homesteaders, and the cattle barons. A tough spot for Horace Mann to be in. But if one person could defuse this ticking time bomb the Shadow Rider was the one person who could.

At once the President put out a telegraph to Fort Laramie where Col. Trenton could contact Horace Mann and give him the dispatch that the President had sent. As the sun was setting over the Western sky Horace Mann was just riding into Fort Laramie. The sound of Taps was ringing through the evening air as the Flag was being lowered into the waiting arms of Sergeant Howard. The sober tone of the bugle is a constant reminder of the violent struggles between the encroaching white settlers, the Indian tribes and the cattle rustlers that have covered the hills of the Dakotas with blood. Sent on a mission from the President, Horace is well equipped. Mann had an unusual ability with foreign languages, a talent that likely stemmed from his early years in a bilingual family and community where he grew up. He knew German and learned to speak fluent Spanish and Indian dialects. This ability allowed him to communicate with native American tribes. It also gave him a degree of power over those for whom he was translating. For over a decade those years of reigning in cattle rustlers and navigating through the uprisings of the Sioux and the Cheyenne has earned him the fame and recognition as the one man that could tame this lawless land.

This lone crusader sent on a perilous mission was now conferring with Col. Trenton on what was needed to restore law and order for all. This was a period in American history when many settlers were not only passing through the Dakota's but ending up settling in Wyoming. During the 1870's the cattle herds were replacing the disappearing Buffalo herds had made life for the native American tribes almost unbearable. In 1870, Wyoming had a population of roughly 9,118 people. By 1890, that number reached 62,555. The Homestead Act of 1862, the Timber Culture Act of 1872 and the Desert Land Act of 1877, all of which offered government land for free or at very low cost, attracted the influx of white settlers. Meanwhile cattle barons began gobbling immense land holdings in which to raise their cattle. As a result of this population boom the wild buffalo herds were being slaughtered leaving the native Indians feeling threatened. The great land grab was just beginning pushing the Indian tribes out of their familiar hunting lands.They were forced to migrate following the remaining buffalo herds that were fast becoming extinct.

This influx of homesteaders during the late 1870's settlers increased the violence between cattlemen and the native Americans who were being displaced. The urgency to restore peace and stop an all out war was becoming more imperative every day. As dawn broke on the morning of November 10th this lone crusader, this Shadow Rider, rode out of Fort Laramie to find Little Wolf chief of the Cheyenne. It was a little after noon on this cold and damp November day when just over the horizon Cheyenne warriors were fast approaching. Upon seeing the white Stetson and the Appaloosa 12 Cheyenne realized it was Horace Mann. They knew that whenever Horace spoke he did so without forked tongue. His reputation for truth and justice preceded him. It was his unwavering insistence that the truth be told and for justice to be served that endeared him to every native American tribe.

It was well into the evening when this band of Cheyenne warriors and Horace Mann reached the Cheyenne Village. Waiting at the center tepee was Little Wolf. In no time at all Little Wolf was encouraged by what Horace had to say. Mann produced a written treaty signed by President Cleveland. A treaty guaranteeing land with water, protection against white poachers of the Buffalo and protection against the racial tensions that have been built up from years of fighting. The next morning Little Wolf with 12 Cheyenne warriors rode off with the Shadow Rider in search of Chief Black Coal and Chief Red Cloud.

Will Little Wolf and the Shadow Rider be able reach the tribe of the Arapaho and the Sioux in time to convince both chiefs to accept the President's treaty to thwart an all out war. Or will these tribes escalate the already violent attacks between the Army, the homesteaders and the cattle barons? The clock is ticking. Stay tuned for Chapter Two of the Shadow Rider. By Dr. Tim G Williams

Poverty: Unsettled Social Dilemma of the Philippines

Poverty ranks high among the unsettled social dilemma of the Philippines that exist until today. It is one of the longest recorded predicaments that struck the economy of the Philippine government.

Poverty can be observed in every corner of the Philippine archipelago and it is craving for a sustainable solution.

"Biyaheng Totoo", a documentary program aired on the widely watched television network in the Philippines, GMA-7, featured the poorest provinces of the Philippines. On the report, it can be reflected that there is an absence of quality roads for transportation, security, electricity, good shelter and foods.

Former President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo introduced the small and medium enterprise development agenda during her term of office believing that it was a key engine that would help boost the Philippine economy, but the program failed to uplift the means of living for both people residing in the urban areas and in the country side.

What is wrong with the Philippine government that it cannot bring their people to the next ladder of economic gain? Is it because of the uncontrolled practices of corruption in the government offices? Or the blame can be thrown to individual person for not striving hard to earn a quality living? These are just a few questions that continue to bother the minds of an individual.

Populace especially those living in far-flung areas look immune with this kind of social dilemma. The poverty scenario that these people have been experiencing for a long period of time makes them believe that whatever amount of effort they exert to earn a good living does no good to them. There's no denying that it is a reality happening in the Philippine Islands but it seems like the government is deaf and blind to the true situation.

Despite the billion dollar remittances from Filipinos working abroad to the Philippine government, still, the majority of Filipinos persist to suffer from poverty.

Some of the few factors attributed to this pressing problem are the malignant sickness of corruption, the large amount of debt in the World Bank, the lack of political will, improper handling of funds, the no transparency of government transactions and the deficiency of technical support from the government.

This poverty dilemma that hardly lingers in the government of the Philippines really needs attention and in-depth analysis why it continues to devastate the majority of the Filipino people.

Today, the Aquino's administration has been challenged by this social predicament that has been standing ever since in the forefront of the society.

He is a poet and he authored the poetry book: Whisper of Life. He is an avid lover of poetry and born and raised in Surigao City, Philippines. He earned two baccalaureate degrees: Bachelor of Science in Accountancy and Bachelor of Science in Criminology. He has also earned 36 academic units in Master of Public Administration. He is a registered criminologist. Please visit his website @ http://www.cesargealogo.com
By Cesar Gealogo

An Early Christmas From Congress?

It was just last year that we wondered what was going on behind closed doors until the Christmas Eve vote was over and the nation had a health care plan. A bill that is 2,300 pages in length. A bill that most people in Congress did not read. A bill that few Americans understand but are fearful of. Now, we face another Christmas deadline that affects everyone: the extension of the tax cuts.

In spite of the results of last month's election and polls that show an overwhelming percentage of respondents believe it is in the nations best interest not to raise taxes for anyone, at least until the economy improves, the politicians don't seem to understand or respect the will of the people. The lame duck Congress must take action before the current tax rates expire on January 1, 2011.

Contrary to what some politicians say, there are no actual tax cuts. By not extending the current tax rate, we avoid reverting to the 2002 taxation level. The President has recently announced a compromise plan is in the works that calls for maintaining the existing tax levels for all Americans for another two years. It also includes a provision to extend unemployment for an additional year, among other things.

The sticking point has been over whether the higher earners, who already pay higher taxes, should be forced to pay even higher rates. Many believe this would adversely affect job creation, since many of these citizens are owners of small businesses. It is these small business operators who are responsible for much of the nation's new jobs.

If this agreement had not been reached, those in the upper income brackets would also have been hit with capital gains tax increases on top of the hikes on ordinary income. This could have resulted in a sizeable falloff in the stock market and have a direct influence on the value of investments held by Americans of all income levels.

New Seniors are often dependent on the financial markets to provide income, over and above Social Security, to help them through their retirement years. So another negative adjustment in the stock market could put retirees in the position of outliving their money, even though they planned and saved for the future long before the future looked so bleak.

Many economists say the government should move aside and allow the private sector to start generating jobs. This will happen only if businesses can plan ahead and see a potential return on their investments. The lower income and capital gains tax rates for investors should provide incentives to move forward.

It is up to Congress to take the necessary actions in December to set the stage so the next session can begin its work starting in January. Let's hope they keep their transactions in the open and not act like the "Grinch who stole Christmas" again this year. All they need to do is extend the tax rates and go home. That will be the best Christmas present for all Americans.

Don Potter, a Philadelphia native, was born in 1936 and is a 50 year veteran of the advertising agency business. Now living in Los Angeles, he has written two novels in retirement, frequently writes on marketing issues, and has a blog dedicated to pre-boomers (those born between 1930 and 1945).

Read more articles for and about pre-boomers with thoughts, comments and opinions designed to spark thinking, foster discussion, and stimulate debate by logging on to http://www.pre-boomermusings.com

Could Europe's Financial Problems Come To The US?

The riots in Greece, France, Ireland and most recently the UK are concerning from afar but scary for those in the middle of the ruckus. Imagine how Prince Charles and his wife felt when so-called disgruntled students attacked their car shouting, "Off with their heads." Shades of the French Revolution of 1789. Will this kind of civil unrest make its way across the Atlantic to our shores? What can be done to avert this potential problem?

Economic brush fires continue to plague the European Union. Demonstrations in the streets have spread, with few exceptions, from country to country. Individual nations are in dire financial condition, so they are beginning to cut services and benefits, ranging from slashing government spending to raising the retirement age to boosting college tuition. This caused union workers and students to protest with increasing violence.

Since the end of WWII, European countries have emerged as societies dependent on the government to provide citizen with entitlements throughout their lives. These practices have led them to the brink of bankruptcy. Many economist see Europe's problems as a warning of things to come in the United States if our government continues to increase spending on programs that have resulted in an unstable financial situation.

If the uproar over extending the current tax rate is any indication of what to expect once the new Congress begins its work, America is in for fierce partisan battles in Washington. But the bigger problem may be what happens if the government finally agrees to make the hard decisions such as spending cuts, scrapping existing problems, cutting back on services and reducing the government payroll including worker benefits and pensions.

Public employee unions will fight passage of anything that affects their members at the federal, state and municipal levels. In addition, the unemployed, those receiving other government aid, students and seniors are expected to rise up in varying degrees to rebel against reduction in programs close to their hearts. And, if run-away inflation combined with increased taxes or fees are added to the equation, the entire population will be up-in-arms. It will not be a pretty site.

The administration must monitor the events in Europe and share its analysis with both the Congress and the American people. We must understand the severity of the financial problems this country will experience if the bleeding is not stopped - now. If the US economy is not sound, everyone loses. Extending the current cuts for all taxpayers is the first step. Following that, belt-tightening is needed by all levels of government. Businesses and individuals have already done this. If everyone is in this together, common sense may prevail.

Those 65+, the New Seniors, grew up in households that knew how to sacrifice. We learned how to live through good and bad times. Our parents left us a solid nation and we enjoyed the fruits of their labors. We must do whatever it takes so our grand children and their children can experience the American dream not the European nightmare.

Don Potter is a Philadelphia native and 50 year veteran of the advertising agency business. Now living in Los Angeles, he has written two novels in retirement and frequently writes and speaks on marketing issues. Potter is the founder and editor-in-chief of NewSeniors.com, the first online magazine dedicated to those 65+.

NewSeniors.com articles provide thoughts, comments and opinions designed to spark thinking, foster discussion and stimulate debate. The editorial content features general news and information as well as videos of interest to the burgeoning 65+ audience. A touch of nostalgia is also included. Learn more by logging on to http://www:NewSeniors.com

Christmas Shopping Is Different Today Than In The Past

Thanksgiving, in the not too distant past, was the official start of the holiday shopping. Now, as soon as Halloween is over the Christmas decorations and merchandise are in the stores and the ads and commercials appear even sooner. Radio stations are playing holiday music in mid-November. And some stores opened on Thanksgiving to beat the traditional Friday-after-shopping-day known as "Black Friday."

The name Black Friday sounds ominous rather than creating a feeling of holiday cheer. Does it make you think of the Black Plague? How about Black Tuesday, when the stock market crashed? Or, does it conjure up the image of a black day in history, signifying some terrible event?

Black Friday is based on the notion that retailers have to wait until the last few weeks of the year before they can start making profits. And since the day after Thanksgiving is the biggest shopping day of the year, this is the time when the stores get in the black rather than continuing to use red ink. This doesn't mean much to us as shoppers, but the retailers and the media sure make it seem like a big deal.

With the shop-early promotions and the growth of holiday Internet buying, Black Friday is more than ever symbolic rather than a reality. A Rasmussen poll conducted before Thanksgiving shows that nearly 4 out of 10 American consumers had already started their holiday shopping and that 64% of respondents plan to do at least some shopping online this year. This is up from 56% making that same claim last holiday season.

Conversely, 35% said they will not buy online versus nearly half that did not plan to go online to purchase Christmas gifts in 2006. Although online marketers should receive a greater percentage of the dollars spent this year, the survey shows that 58% of the consumers will spend less for gifts than they did last year. This number is slightly higher among those 65+, who are also less apt to be Internet purchasers.

Nearly half of all adults consider holiday shopping a fun experience, while just over a third do not. Among those 65+, 39% say it's an unpleasant chore, and 39% consider it fun. Those who have made arrangements to not exchange gifts with family and friends is evenly split with 47% indicating yes and 46% saying no. In spite of this, about two-thirds of shoppers prefer to buy specific gifts for others rather than giving gift cards. Only 45% would rather receive specific gifts as opposed to 42% who prefer gift cards.

Since there is a great deal of uncertainty stemming from the nation's economic condition, many people will wait until Christmas gets closer before deciding how much to spend for gifts. Maybe this will be a year when shoppers consider the wants and needs of the gift recipient and end up buying meaningful gifts rather than costly ones. The retailers and online marketers may not like this, but the person receiving the gift will. Incidentally, nearly 7 in 10 Americans prefer Merry Christmas to Happy Holidays. So, have a "Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year."

Don Potter, a Philadelphia native, was born in 1936 and is a 50 year veteran of the advertising agency business. Now living in Los Angeles, he has written two novels in retirement, frequently writes on marketing issues, and has a blog dedicated to pre-boomers (those born between 1930 and 1945).

Read more articles for and about pre-boomers with thoughts, comments and opinions designed to spark thinking, foster discussion, and stimulate debate by logging on to http://www.pre-boomermusings.com